Is there a sustained threat from the RIRA/CIRA

[Wasp]

Apr 19, 2009 12:32:08 GMT Blue Angel said:

WASP I don't wish to derail the thread if you wish to talk about post 57 in detail open a new thread and I will address your points and why they are racist and bigoted (and the massive historical inaccuracies and confusion within them) in such a thread.

You open the thread because it is you who wants to talk about it.

[earl]

Let's not get into finger pointing and blaming the other side for your own sides faults. I see it happening here with a few people. The political vacuum is the biggest threat to the peace. SF and the DUP's inactions are the greatest threat to the peace. Now we have gun nuts on both sides, armed with enough ammo and knowhow to make quite a stir. They don't have any support in their communities as a whole to start anything big, but they obviously have enough support within their own respected local communities to be allowed to operate.

We have seen very little done to try and make the two communities work together for everyone's sake. Everyone has their own little fiefdom which they are in charge of, and a handy boogyman to blame when things go wrong. Unemployment will be on the rise, and opportunities getting scarce. If the British government starts any serious cut-backs in NI, it could lead to more job losses considering they are NI's largest employer.

The energy of youth should be focused to try and set NI up towards getting a running start for when this recessionary period ends. Instead, I fear that it will be used to feed old grudges, which will keep NI on the edge of peace.

[Jim]

The youth problems in NI are part of a wider UK and Irish problem with youth, the big difference with NI is that where gangs in England close that gap its paramilitaries in NI that will start closing that gap and start indoctrinating them.

Worrying? Yes, but I think its being blown out of proportion on how much support the RIRA could potentially have.

[An Fear Dubh]

Reply to Harry, post 13 - I do not have the formula that will instantly solve all the issues to everyones view point or satisfaction. But I can use historical analysis to look at the past and learn lessons from that past. And I hoped to join with everyone here to understand what the issues were and together we could better understand and we would all go out and use this mutual understanding to engage others in our communities. I am not trying to be superior or patronizing, yes I am pointing out the obvious, not everyone can always see the obvious, and what might be obvious to me might not be so obvious to another.

There is in my opinion, no easy quick fix solution. The only real solution is for politics to work. This will shrink support for all dissidents. This is not a quick fix but a slow drip drip. Many of us want to see instant solutions but I do not think one exists.

I do not see this as one community bearing the brunt, but as the whole community. I have already said that I do not see much of this new political graffiti you talk of, I see more hood graffiti. I think most of this 'surge' is media driven, and the levels have not really grown. But I have pointed out that the response of various elements can effect development. 30yr old rhetoric should be 30 years out of date and hold little relevance today.

When you say this has nothing to do with Loyalism. Are you suggesting that Loyalism is not interested or influenced by events?

I do not see Loyalism as showing restraint for not falling into a trap. If you are clever enough to avoid a trap laid for you, that is not restraint. All groups have things to contribute and bring to the alter of final solution. I feel a great opportunity was lost by not ensuring that Loyalism had a voice at the heart of government. I feel a lack of electoral mandate was a poor excuse to isolate one element at such a crucial period.

I also feel that Loyalism could have done more to help themselves and the process. While I do not wish to hand them a bargaining chip and call for Loyalism to engage in a decommissioning process. I feel if they had acted more decisively on decommissioning that they could have created a better environment to bring greater rewards for the whole community. And maybe have benefited from this warm atmosphere. But this view is speculative.

I have no interest in a 'tit for tat' posting session. I am only interested in debating with someone like yourself Harry. Someone that actually reads and considers the point made and responds back with their own view point. Those that do not do this do not understand the purpose of this forum. While some of my tone may come across poorly, my intention is always to create a group analysis, not necessarily mine or the first one put across. I try to listen and read everyones view point and seriously consider the merits and the emotional back drop that is not mentioned.

I found it strange that at the start of this thread myself and Wasp seemed to hold the same view. I supported what he said because it was in my opinion the correct view. It was that simple. If 'tit for tat' had been my motive the valid point Wasp was making could have easily been lost in couple of throw away comments.

[Harry]

AFD, fair enough. Sorry if it seemed like a wanted all the answers from yourself, i understand it will take time. I guess its because i see you as having a very good understanding of the workings within the Republican community and i'm guilty of the assumption that you may be able to resolve all this internally.

As a Loyalist looking in, im not sure what we can do to help. I agree with your points regarding Loyalism and the current process. I'm very frustrated simply because we have all seen that violence won't ever solve the issues we have as a country. I just can't grasp what these people see that they can acheive. The IRA at their height were organised, deadly and capable of striking anywhere and at anytime. They realised that a military solution wasn't possible. Why oh why do these people think that they can do something that the IRA couldn't. Why would they want to push us back to the days of troops on the streets, checkpoints, watchtowers???

Surely the Republican community don't want any of this either. I just feel that they are growing in strength and i'm worried that not enough is being done to hinder them. I personally feel that the only people who can really hinder them is the republican community itself. I see these dissidents as the enemy of my community and your own. I guess i have doubts that the republican community is really turning against these people and for me personally i need to see some form of positive action to let these people know they don't not have any support. I want to feel like its us against them and in us i mean both communities. Paranoia is most likely the cause of my feelings but i guess the troubles can do that to you.

[earl]

Apr 22, 2009 6:49:17 GMT Harry said:

As a Loyalist looking in, im not sure what we can do to help. I agree with your points regarding Loyalism and the current process. I'm very frustrated simply because we have all seen that violence won't ever solve the issues we have as a country. I just can't grasp what these people see that they can acheive. The IRA at their height were organised, deadly and capable of striking anywhere and at anytime. They realised that a military solution wasn't possible. Why oh why do these people think that they can do something that the IRA couldn't. Why would they want to push us back to the days of troops on the streets, checkpoints, watchtowers???

AFD is probably a better person than myself to answer this but I'll tell you what I think and others can back it up or tear it down. There is a strain of thinking within Irish republicanism which has a martyr mentality. This stems primarily from 1916. I found this short article on the subject (it's not charged with republican bias, so it's safe to read!) which in a nutshell describes this mentality.
www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/easterrising/insurrection/in05.shtml
This paragraph would have echo's with what we are seeing with the dissidents and could give a little insight into their way of thinking:

The Council’s members were convinced that Ireland’s national spirit – its sense of itself as a distinct nation with a right to independence – was fading. They feared that if Britain granted Ireland limited self- government, its people would come to accept permanently their inclusion in the United Kingdom and the English Crown as head of state.

Coupled with this 'Blood Sacrifice' mentality is that of the argument put forward by physical force republicans in that the British government can never be trusted, and that it's only stimulus is the use of force.
Whilst this argument could be debated with some supporting evidence in the past, there is absolutely no evidence to support this in recent times. Of course, memories are long on this island, and it's often enough that it once happened in the near distant past to try and justify actions now.

Surely the Republican community don't want any of this either. I just feel that they are growing in strength and i'm worried that not enough is being done to hinder them. I personally feel that the only people who can really hinder them is the republican community itself.

The republican community do not want this and have shown it with how they have voted over the last few years. SF's vote didn't increase until the cease fires and the more committed to peace they have become, the larger the vote they have received. Dissident violence is a problem for the people of NI to sort out together. It's up to the republican community to isolate these dissidents within their community, but it's up to Stormont and all parties involved to make political progress, work together for the benefit of everyone, and to ensure that there is no stalemate or political vacuum, and it's up to the loyalist community to not get suckered in by this crowd because their biggest recruitment drive would come from a return to both sides having a go.

I see these dissidents as the enemy of my community and your own. I guess i have doubts that the republican community is really turning against these people and for me personally i need to see some form of positive action to let these people know they don't not have any support. I want to feel like its us against them and in us i mean both communities. Paranoia is most likely the cause of my feelings but i guess the troubles can do that to you.

This is very important, and I'm glad that you see it this way. I can understand why you need some indication that this behaviour considering what's happened in NI in the past.

[Wasp]

Considering more Protestants are being driven from their homes shows that these scumbags do indeed have support within the republican community and I fear it is growing.

[An Fear Dubh]

While people of any creed or ethnic background being driven from their homes is wrong. I can not see evidence of great numbers of Protestants being driven from their homes because of support for 'dissident' republicans. There seems to be a higher number of 'ethnic' minority people being driven from their homes in Loyalist areas, and this trend in growing and spreading.

I do not think the analysis of some 'dissident' Republicans is that deep. I do not think there is a long term, stage by stage increase to achieve small, mid-term, and large long, term goals. But more a strategy of play it along and see what develops.

While I do not entirely agree with Earl, but they are points that need to taken and used as contributing factors. Republicans have always been a broad band, that allows right and left wing elements to co-exist internally. Also you have those that want a greater emphasis on military and those that want that great emphasis to be on non-military methods. At various points in the past we have seen these opposing elements work closely together and at other points fracture and break out into direct conflict with one and other. If we add this to what Earl highlighted we begin to see that Republicanism like Loyalism is always moving and changing. And depending on the economic, social and political climate one element prospers.

I am not a supporter of the Adams/McGuiness fraction. But I do recognize that the political climate is in their favor. I do not believe they have a laid out strategy other than elections and popular politics to win votes. Which means that policy changes with each election manifesto. My problem is that I can not offer ANY alternative strategy that might yield quicker progress to the Republican 'Holy Grail' (The People of the island of Ireland, united under one common government, and that government serving everyone equally). While I do favor a left-wing approach to politics to limit your base to this brand alone is to condemn your group to the fringes and minority politics. So I see the alternatives as to support Adams/McGuiness or follow a path that leads no where but misery and hardship. I would be on the edges of what Earl called a physical force republican. I see no past evidence to show British good faith. But we are a long way from testing this point. If we can work to wards this test while improving the social, and economic conditions of working class people on this island, through non violence politics. Then to continue armed conflict is immoral. I am unsure if SF are offering a strategy that works towards this test, but it is the only option at this point that seems progressive.

There is a greater onus on republicans like myself and those in SF to engage with other 'dissident' republicans and convince them that the SF strategy is the only logical one that exists in this political climate. While some might want to build an alternative we must convince them that the way to do this is not through military action at this time. I do not believe that it is good to attempt to isolate these groups. This allows them a space to fester and stagnate alone. I think elements of Loyalism has been isolated and therefore natural evolution and development has stalled. This is the case with 'dissident' republicans, we must debate and engage them but we also need to show them the fruits of the SF approach. For fruits to develop SF need the Unionist community in particular the DUP to join with them and produce these fruits.

I can understand the fears of the unionist community that history is repeating itself. And a big open rejection of these 'dissident' republicans would be very welcome, to calm these fears. Unfortunately politics works or doesn't work very very slowly, there is no quick lasting fix. As Earl said stalemates or political vacuums give these groups space, even slow progress and change curbs their growth.

[Wasp]

A County Antrim man has said his family are being forced out of their home because of sectarian attacks.
Chris McCaughan said a "republican element" in Rasharkin was targeting his family because they are Protestants.
Mr McCaughan said the trouble had been going on for 10 years. The most recent attack was at the weekend when car tyres were slashed and a window broken.
"You can only take so much of this. I just find it very hard to cope with. My wife is devastated," he said.
"My wife this last few months has been absolutely tortured. Her car's been pelted with eggs, she's been given a lot of verbal abuse, and this is with her mother who is 84 and partially blind.
"But I'm not blaming the Catholic community for this. I'm blaming the republican element who are prepared to stop at nothing to try to get rid of whatever Protestant community there is left in this village.
"A lot of my own family have had to move out because of sectarianism."

These attacks didn't come from dissidents, they came from republicans and started 10 years ago, many more families have fled before this man including many of his own family.

3 other families at least are currently suffering similar abuse in the same village.

[Wasp]

I posted that before I read the other section.

[An Fear Dubh]

In the last few days the Queen of England was in the north of Ireland for 3 days. And prior to her arrival it was an open secret that the visit was on the cards. The Irish Rugby team knew of her expected visit, as they were introduced to her.

In my opinion if there was a sustained threat from RIRA/CIRA then surely this visit presented an ideal opportunity to launch some offensive. Even if they were very restricted in what actions they could launch. It does not take much to phone in hoax calls and a few hoax vehicles to disrupts and give a veneer of activity.

The fact that no action took place, highlights to me that we were the victim of media speculation and media hype over the strength of the threat. We should not be complacent, and they will be active in the future.

But now is a better time to put that threat into proper context and level.

[Shades40]

The night the police officer was shot dead was a wild night here, Mc Conville lives a few doors down and the murder happened 2 mins drive from me, I'll give my story at a later date.