Fianna Fail launch Northern Strategy Team

[An Fear Dubh]

Mmmm what Unionists want to ask themselves is why are FF moving up north? After all these years, and since they dropped the claim on the north from the constitution. Why now organise in the north, is SF's claim to be the only 32 county party effecting their vote in the south? Nah! FF are known to be the shrewdest politicial animals in politics in Ireland. They can smell a fencesitting voter and make them a FF voter with a nod and a wink.

[Republic]

Good point AFD, FF certainly think they can gain smoething from this move. It certainly isn't for a selfless reason anyway!!! I'm looking forward to seeing how FF will adapt to NI politics!

[Jim]

If they adopt.

They are good at what they do, but they've ruled the roost down there for generations, whereas Sinn Fein rule the roost up here on the nationalist side and most likely will for the long term future.

I'll not be voting for Fianna Fail.

[An Fear Dubh]

'Ruling the Roost', I would not agree with that simplistic analysis. FF may have been the most dominant force in politics, but that is not quiet the same as ruling the roost, but I would not argue the point.

As for who ruled the roost in the north, that has to be the UUP, and on the nationalists side it has to be SDLP. We could argue that support was always high for SF but there was never a way to measure that strength until they entered into electoral politics. But as 'rule' is usually defined by those who make and govern the laws, then SF were always outside of the ability to 'rule'. So in real terms SF is the new boy on the block in electoral politics and have yet to show electoral durability and resilience, along with the ability to 'bounce' back. The recent elections in the south were the first time there was a serious 'set-back' and the next elections will show their abilities. In the north it has been a steady increase, but this has been carefully groomed and manipulated as always standing in new areas. But when eventually they are standing in all areas they will have reached their base level at the moment they are manipulating figures, so they can always say, 'our over all vote has increased' despite any losses. So as far as ruling the roost SF have only got into power for the first time along with Ian Paisley. And have yet to be tested or seriously challenged.

FF have some difficult choices to make in the north. Do they go it alone, or do they merge with the SDLP? Will the SDLP fully merge with them? And do FF want the political baggage merging with a party in decline and loosing support, far better to let SDLP member leave and join FF. But how long will it take FF to catch up to SF and be a serious challenge, 5-10 years at the earliest, can they wait that long? By that time another election might have happened in the south and a new coalition government formed. And if SF regain lost ground and make up the ground they were expected to last time then they could force themselves into government. All parties in the south have now politically positioned themselves as to allow for a possible alliance with SF.

The point I was making for Unionists is why is FF entering politics in the north, if southern politics has given up on the north and set aside their constitutional claim to the north? Why would the leading party of southern politics want a controlling influence in the north, because everyone goes into politics to get to the seat of power. Why would (as Unionists label) a 'foreign government' want to enter another counties jurisdiction and put up people for election. And why would the 'home government' say nothing in protest?

There are a large number of 'ex-pats' living in Spain, why does the British Labour party not form in Spain? Look at how hard some people found it to get the British Labour party to form in the north, what about the Tories or the Liberals why do they not form here? Or why do they not form in the south of Ireland, there must be enough 'ex-pats' to get one candidate elected??

I was not asking you Jim or other nationalists if you would vote FF, but why would FF think there was something in it for them??

[Jim]

Well lets be honest the UUP only had the majority of any votes up here because they gerrymandered the borders to allow it. They where still going strong around the GFA but as for the SDLP theyve been competing with SF for years and have found it difficult to stay on top of their game untill they finally lost it. Sinn Fein for the nationalist community do have the majority of power and leadership, theyre a lot more active on the ground level than the SDLP as you may well already know. Can FF do that? If they cant they wont be getting nationalist votes, a lot of people are going to look to FF and say "where were you when we had british soldiers on our streets" while SF was at the front of that.

Its ironic, the border is going to make republican politics stronger than ever seen.

[An Fear Dubh]

What was an interesting development was SDLP Margret Richie speaking at the UUP conference. A conference that was very ground breaking for the UUP, they did away with block voting. David Trimble would never have been elected leader except for block voting. The conference took up half the space that the DUP had booked for their conference at the same venue. And Basil McCrea made another stalking challenge for the future leadership by voicing the thoughts of some that perhaps being an opposition rather than a member of the DUP/SF executive would be better electorally for the UUP. He does not really care he just wants to ensure his profile for the future leadership.
But both Margret and Reg were very much pals. And it suggests that perhaps the middle-class professionals are thinking about forming a political alliance UUP + SDLP. Which in itself does not seem much, but suppose it did get cosy and with the SDLP + Fianna Fáil association we might see a UUP + SDLP + FF bloc that looks to isolate both SF and the DUP and they can portray them as the extremists of northern politics.

[earl]

I honestly don't know of what to make of this issue. FF are the ultimate opportunists, and probably a most savage political predator on these islands. They smell blood, but who's we just don't know yet. There may have been some backroom shenanigans between both governments, and this may be a part of an overall stratedgy, but I'd sooner think that it's more to do with combating SF than going for a UI.
I don't think it'll work out for them any way. NI is a lot more socialist than the south, and I don't think FF could even pretend to be lefties.

[An Fear Dubh]

I agree that FF are the most savage political predator and the ultimate opportunists. And like yourself I believe they smell blood. While their strategy and purpose is unclear at the moment. Any intervention by a political party that is in the driving seat of power in southern politics must have implications on the structures for the whole of this island whether that is by design or not. If they want to combat SF support they must address the issue of Irish Unity.
I think they would be happier with a FF alliance with the SDLP while the SDLP has an alliance with the UUP. Thus they not only challenge SF but also the DUP, and can begin to marginalize both SF and the DUP.
I do not believe that the north is 'socialist', socialism maybe more vocal but basically people are similar to the south (and for those who hate that thought - similar to Scotland). They want jobs, good housing, a health service that works fairly, and education and prospects for their children without too much additional expense, they also want to feel safe and that means good policing.

[Jim]

They must address a number of issues, not just Irish unity. It'll be a contest to see whos greener. SF voters wont forget where FF was seen during the troubles; no where.

[Wasp]

Personnally for me I see FF playing the long term statedgy. First of all especially in recent years they have been highly critical of sinn fein which most if not all Unionists welcomed. They still have said things which angered Unionists but were welcomed by nationalists. They know the current problem within Unionism sharing gov. with sinn fein, thye know most if not all Unionists want to see the sdlp as the main nationalist party (although lundy condemned all who as traitors for supporting devolution when the sdlp were the largest party). FF know that with their condemnation and strong words for the republican movement that they are winning over Unionists to the point that Unionists will work with them, they know that by associating themselves with the sdlp that this will be more acceptable to Unionists to do with government and they know that there may be some tactical voting from Unionists in areas where sinn fein are the main players.

Whether or not they want a U.I as quick as possible I am not so sure, or whether they want N.I to be a shining example to the world with things staying as they are for the foreseeable future is hard to tell. But if their aim is for a U.I in the long term then their strategy is way ahead of sinn feins concerning Unionists.

[Jim]

But would unionists vote for them? Thats where it counts.

The PUP is miles ahead of any other party in cross community work with nationalists, but they dont have the votes so in the end they dont matter. This could be the same for FF.

[Wasp]

If I was in an area where a Unionist had no chance of gaining a seat, I would vote for the sdlp or FF if it helped putting sinn fein out.

[Jim]

the SDLP care even less about unionists than sinn fein.

[Republic]

setanta said:

So intelligent. My enemies enemey is my friend WASP?

In fairness Setanta, republicans are not in a position to criticise such logic, considering they have used it so many times themselves in the past.

[Jim]

Since when, WW2? What the British army does has far more consequences than what the IRA do in terms of other countries, they're the lot with the military might and an ex-empire.