Post by Wasp on Oct 5, 2009 14:23:57 GMT
While they are enjoying unprecedented popularity in Northern Ireland, the party's fortunes in the Republic are in sharp decline
If anyone is seeking a single statistic to explain why Ireland changed its mind and endorsed the EU Lisbon treaty this time around, they should look no further than the current unemployment figures.
Between July 2008, just one month after the Irish first decisively rejected Lisbon, and today, unemployment in Ireland has soared by 59%. Moreover, by the end of this year the jobless total in the Republic is set to rise to half a million.
Fears over being isolated in the EU and the possibility of Ireland's European partners being less sympathetic to the Republic's cry for economic help was a decisive factor in this dramatic reversal of political fortunes. After this vote the Irish government can now go to the EU without a red face and ask for the billions of euros the state needs to inject into its banking rescue plan – the National Assets Management Agency.
For Brian Cowen and his Fianna Fáil-Green party coalition yesterday's result is a welcome fillip after 18 months of torrid economic headlines and historic low poll ratings. In many ways Cowen's travails in this period have mirrored those of Gordon Brown. Both men have had to wait in the wings for a long time before achieving power, standing in the shadows of two more charismatic prime ministers, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern. Brown and Cowen were in charge of their respective countries' economies as chancellor and finance minister during the credit boom years and were always going to get the blame when they took over for the fiscal mess the Republic and the UK are in currently.
The Brown analogy is in fact an alarming portent for Cowen, even while he enjoys his first major break this weekend. For when the euphoria dies down, Cowen and his government face major and potentially lethal domestic hurdles, not least the budget in December.
If Ireland had voted "No" again, the result could have precipitated a crisis in government and possibly a backbench rebellion within Fianna Fáil aimed at replacing Cowen. The ringing endorsement of Lisbon ends all speculation of that for the present. However, the forthcoming December budget will really make or break the coalition.
Figures released this weekend show that the budget cuts needed to plug the black hole in Ireland's public finances will have to be harsher than first expected. Revenue from tax and VAT will be €2bn lower than the Department of Finance had predicted, which means more cuts. At present the Irish public deficit is €20.1bn – €10bn higher than it was exactly 12 months ago.
The key question remains: will the Green party have the stomach to agree to savage cuts in public services or will it instead panic, pull out of government and trigger a general election? One Irish government adviser said yesterday that the first victory of the Cowen-led coalition will strengthen the Green party leadership's resolve to hold their nerve and remain in government until the recession abates. The adviser even held out the hope that the Lisbon victory was the first sign of a recovery in popularity for the embattled and battered Fianna Fáil-Green coalition.
During the latter stages of this Lisbon campaign the flamboyant, outspoken Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary published a pro-Lisbon newspaper ad portraying the main opponents of the EU reform treaty as "losers". Among those in O'Leary's gallery was Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Féin vice-president. Once the great white hope of Sinn Féin in the Republic, she has lost her Dublin Euro-seat, as well as failing to get elected to the Dáil in the last general election.
For the last decade, Sinn Féin have been winners rather than losers. In Northern Ireland the party has eclipsed the SDLP as the main nationalist force in the Assembly. If fresh Assembly elections were called now, Sinn Féin could well emerge as the largest party in Stormont, given the threat of the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice taking votes off the Democratic Unionist party. That is the main reason why Gordon Brown arrives in Belfast tomorrow as he seeks to secure a deal between Sinn Féin and the DUP over the transfer of policing and justice powers from Westminster to Belfast.
Yet in the Republic the party's fortunes are in sharp decline and yesterday's Lisbon result only underlines that political fact. Back in June 2008 Sinn Féin thought that being on the victorious side of the first Lisbon referendum would galvanise their project in the Republic. Now they find themselves as the only Dáil party to call for a "No" vote. Indeed, in the first constituency modern Sinn Féin secured a Dáil seat in, Cavan/Monaghan, a majority of the electorate ignored the party's line on Lisbon: 61% of voters in the border constituency voted "Yes" this time.
What the Lisbon vote illuminates is the chasm between the politics of Northern Ireland and the politics of the Republic. While Sinn Féin is very much a mainstream force north of the border, in the south it remains very much at the margins, even at a time when the government is so unpopular due to the recession. The party that once hoped to be in power in both Dublin and Belfast simultaneously, and thus drive forward a United Ireland agenda, has failed to exploit these exceptionally dire political-economic conditions.
Ireland's endorsement of Lisbon also underlines again the reality of partition on the island. By voting "Yes" the Republic draws ever closer to the EU and the eurozone economy. With a Conservative victory extremely likely in the next general election, Northern Ireland is set to remain in the sterling zone and thus disconnected from any future all-Ireland currency.
One of the main by-products of this weekend's Lisbon result is that Sinn Féin's vision for a United Ireland by 2016 – the 100th anniversary of the Easter Rising – is entirely illusory.
If anyone is seeking a single statistic to explain why Ireland changed its mind and endorsed the EU Lisbon treaty this time around, they should look no further than the current unemployment figures.
Between July 2008, just one month after the Irish first decisively rejected Lisbon, and today, unemployment in Ireland has soared by 59%. Moreover, by the end of this year the jobless total in the Republic is set to rise to half a million.
Fears over being isolated in the EU and the possibility of Ireland's European partners being less sympathetic to the Republic's cry for economic help was a decisive factor in this dramatic reversal of political fortunes. After this vote the Irish government can now go to the EU without a red face and ask for the billions of euros the state needs to inject into its banking rescue plan – the National Assets Management Agency.
For Brian Cowen and his Fianna Fáil-Green party coalition yesterday's result is a welcome fillip after 18 months of torrid economic headlines and historic low poll ratings. In many ways Cowen's travails in this period have mirrored those of Gordon Brown. Both men have had to wait in the wings for a long time before achieving power, standing in the shadows of two more charismatic prime ministers, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern. Brown and Cowen were in charge of their respective countries' economies as chancellor and finance minister during the credit boom years and were always going to get the blame when they took over for the fiscal mess the Republic and the UK are in currently.
The Brown analogy is in fact an alarming portent for Cowen, even while he enjoys his first major break this weekend. For when the euphoria dies down, Cowen and his government face major and potentially lethal domestic hurdles, not least the budget in December.
If Ireland had voted "No" again, the result could have precipitated a crisis in government and possibly a backbench rebellion within Fianna Fáil aimed at replacing Cowen. The ringing endorsement of Lisbon ends all speculation of that for the present. However, the forthcoming December budget will really make or break the coalition.
Figures released this weekend show that the budget cuts needed to plug the black hole in Ireland's public finances will have to be harsher than first expected. Revenue from tax and VAT will be €2bn lower than the Department of Finance had predicted, which means more cuts. At present the Irish public deficit is €20.1bn – €10bn higher than it was exactly 12 months ago.
The key question remains: will the Green party have the stomach to agree to savage cuts in public services or will it instead panic, pull out of government and trigger a general election? One Irish government adviser said yesterday that the first victory of the Cowen-led coalition will strengthen the Green party leadership's resolve to hold their nerve and remain in government until the recession abates. The adviser even held out the hope that the Lisbon victory was the first sign of a recovery in popularity for the embattled and battered Fianna Fáil-Green coalition.
During the latter stages of this Lisbon campaign the flamboyant, outspoken Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary published a pro-Lisbon newspaper ad portraying the main opponents of the EU reform treaty as "losers". Among those in O'Leary's gallery was Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Féin vice-president. Once the great white hope of Sinn Féin in the Republic, she has lost her Dublin Euro-seat, as well as failing to get elected to the Dáil in the last general election.
For the last decade, Sinn Féin have been winners rather than losers. In Northern Ireland the party has eclipsed the SDLP as the main nationalist force in the Assembly. If fresh Assembly elections were called now, Sinn Féin could well emerge as the largest party in Stormont, given the threat of the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice taking votes off the Democratic Unionist party. That is the main reason why Gordon Brown arrives in Belfast tomorrow as he seeks to secure a deal between Sinn Féin and the DUP over the transfer of policing and justice powers from Westminster to Belfast.
Yet in the Republic the party's fortunes are in sharp decline and yesterday's Lisbon result only underlines that political fact. Back in June 2008 Sinn Féin thought that being on the victorious side of the first Lisbon referendum would galvanise their project in the Republic. Now they find themselves as the only Dáil party to call for a "No" vote. Indeed, in the first constituency modern Sinn Féin secured a Dáil seat in, Cavan/Monaghan, a majority of the electorate ignored the party's line on Lisbon: 61% of voters in the border constituency voted "Yes" this time.
What the Lisbon vote illuminates is the chasm between the politics of Northern Ireland and the politics of the Republic. While Sinn Féin is very much a mainstream force north of the border, in the south it remains very much at the margins, even at a time when the government is so unpopular due to the recession. The party that once hoped to be in power in both Dublin and Belfast simultaneously, and thus drive forward a United Ireland agenda, has failed to exploit these exceptionally dire political-economic conditions.
Ireland's endorsement of Lisbon also underlines again the reality of partition on the island. By voting "Yes" the Republic draws ever closer to the EU and the eurozone economy. With a Conservative victory extremely likely in the next general election, Northern Ireland is set to remain in the sterling zone and thus disconnected from any future all-Ireland currency.
One of the main by-products of this weekend's Lisbon result is that Sinn Féin's vision for a United Ireland by 2016 – the 100th anniversary of the Easter Rising – is entirely illusory.
