Post by earl on Jul 7, 2008 14:49:03 GMT
SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE HAS dropped slightly in the first opinion poll conducted since the SNP government's first parliamentary session in office.
The TNS System Three survey shows that 39% of respondents want Alex Salmond's administration to negotiate for independence with Westminster, compared with 41% who oppose it.
The percentage of Scots backing the break-up of the United Kingdom is down 2% in three months, but up 4% since August last year.
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Salmond wants to hold an independence referendum in 2010 as a prelude to entering talks with Westminster about creating a separate Scottish state.
TNS has organised a quarterly tracker poll since last autumn based on the exact question Salmond would like to put to the electorate.
He wants to ask voters whether they agree or disagree that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".
The latest snapshot, which was conducted between June 25 and July 1, reveals that 41% of those polled disagree with the proposition, while 39% agree.
This contrasts with the result three months ago, when support for independence was recorded at 41% and opposition came in at 40%.
Both results are within the margin of error, which suggests that the 21% of "don't knows" would determine the result of a referendum. The TNS poll from August last year found that 50% of those polled disagreed with Salmond's independence option, compared to 35% in favour.
Eleven months of polling has shown support for separation rise by 4%, while opposition has fallen by 9%. Equally, SNP supporters may be anxious that support for independence appears to have flatlined around 40%.
It is also apparent from other polls that putting a third question on the ballot paper, namely boosting Holyrood's powers, reduces the numbers for independence. Support for independence is greatest amongst the 35 to 44 age group, while opposition is strongest in the 65+ bracket.
The poll was taken in the middle of the Wendy Alexander donation saga and at the end of the SNP's first parliamentary session in office, a period marked by debates on abolishing the council tax and replacing PFI.
TNS managing director Chris Eyon said of the findings: "While this is clearly a positive situation for the SNP compared to August, when support languished 15% behind opposition, it is interesting to note that the actual level of support is now only 4% higher than the opening reading. The difference is in the level actively opposed, which has declined by 9%, although the majority of these are now undecided rather than supportive of independence."
A Labour spokesman said: "The SNP want to break up Britain, and this poll shows that a majority reject this."
The SNP's Nicola Sturgeon said: "This poll confirms that support for independence is running neck and neck with the status quo."
The TNS System Three survey shows that 39% of respondents want Alex Salmond's administration to negotiate for independence with Westminster, compared with 41% who oppose it.
The percentage of Scots backing the break-up of the United Kingdom is down 2% in three months, but up 4% since August last year.
advertisement
Salmond wants to hold an independence referendum in 2010 as a prelude to entering talks with Westminster about creating a separate Scottish state.
TNS has organised a quarterly tracker poll since last autumn based on the exact question Salmond would like to put to the electorate.
He wants to ask voters whether they agree or disagree that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".
The latest snapshot, which was conducted between June 25 and July 1, reveals that 41% of those polled disagree with the proposition, while 39% agree.
This contrasts with the result three months ago, when support for independence was recorded at 41% and opposition came in at 40%.
Both results are within the margin of error, which suggests that the 21% of "don't knows" would determine the result of a referendum. The TNS poll from August last year found that 50% of those polled disagreed with Salmond's independence option, compared to 35% in favour.
Eleven months of polling has shown support for separation rise by 4%, while opposition has fallen by 9%. Equally, SNP supporters may be anxious that support for independence appears to have flatlined around 40%.
It is also apparent from other polls that putting a third question on the ballot paper, namely boosting Holyrood's powers, reduces the numbers for independence. Support for independence is greatest amongst the 35 to 44 age group, while opposition is strongest in the 65+ bracket.
The poll was taken in the middle of the Wendy Alexander donation saga and at the end of the SNP's first parliamentary session in office, a period marked by debates on abolishing the council tax and replacing PFI.
TNS managing director Chris Eyon said of the findings: "While this is clearly a positive situation for the SNP compared to August, when support languished 15% behind opposition, it is interesting to note that the actual level of support is now only 4% higher than the opening reading. The difference is in the level actively opposed, which has declined by 9%, although the majority of these are now undecided rather than supportive of independence."
A Labour spokesman said: "The SNP want to break up Britain, and this poll shows that a majority reject this."
The SNP's Nicola Sturgeon said: "This poll confirms that support for independence is running neck and neck with the status quo."
