2007 Southern Election

[An Fear Dubh]

While it is still early days, it is obvious that Fianna Fáil did well. The PD's got mauled, and Labour lost as a result of their partnership with Fine Gael, who did well but no where good enough. Sinn Féin seem at this stage to have stood still, which I imagine will be well bellow expectation.

For me the highlight has to be the defeat of Michael McDowell, and then capped by his retirement from politics.

[Blue Angel]

oh god yes FD, I can't say how glad I am to see our very on Thatcher-lite dissappearing. As I had little time for a minister of justice who rambled on about others while soundly abusing the privileges of his own office. No more stupid comparisions between republican papers and nazi party press organs (well at least till someone else starts that up!) for a bit hopefully.

[An Fear Dubh]

So for Sinn Féin it is now time to reflect and learn the lessons. It seems that Earl's point is very valid - that is that any gain in purely nationalist (or northern politics) terms has been used to the maxium. And that Sinn Féin in the south need to move away from the perception that they are a one issue party - remove the border. A need for an economic policy that does not change mid-election campaign, and stands up to the needs of society in the south. They need to stay with local party members who work on the ground and avoid parachuting in 'faces/names'. I refer to Tony Gregory's assertion that Sinn Féin would have won a seat if they had stayed with Nicky Keogh, instead of bringing in Mary Lou. The other failing is that SF do not attract transfers, and the Greens were able to make gains on their ability to get transfers and put them above others who polled better with first preference votes. Small parties need to attract transfers.

[An Fear Dubh]

But back to McDowell - I hope he saved his money as the case against him from his remarks about the newspaper 'Daily Ireland' is still ongoing. Prehaps there should be special edition of 'Daily Ireland' printed with a picture of McDowell and the caption, 'Gotcha!'

[An Fear Dubh]

I just love conspiracy theories, and this is exactly what I think is the case. I fancied Mary Harney to get an election mauling after taking on the Health Ministerial role and I felt Bertie had set her up. She walked right into Bertie's trap, but with Michael snipping in the background she found herself weak and in the spotlight with countless health related issues. By allowing Michael to surge forward with his ego and brash manner she slid out of the media spotlight.
www.rathersnazzy.com/2007/05/is-mary-harney-really-most-cunning-of.html

[An Fear Dubh]

The indications are that Sinn Féin have ended up losing a seat, leaving them with 4 seats. But at the moment they have 3, and are waiting on Dublin South Central - Aengus O’Snodaigh (possible) and Dublin North East - Larry O’Toole (very outside hope).

You have to wonder why SF did so bad in Dublin, this is supposed to be their niche?

[An Fear Dubh]

I thought this analysis good and agree with most of it.
gaskinbalrog.blogspot.com/2007/05/sinn-fin-what-went-wrong.html

I hope Setanta reads it and rethinks his decision to leave Sinn Féin as some of what he has said is incorporated here and shows the need for people like him taking control from bolshy northerners, who are making decisions about areas where they lack the local know how.

[Republic]

anfeardubh said:

I hope Setanta reads it and rethinks his decision to leave Sinn Féin.

Is this true AFD?

[Harry]

Its great to see SF fail ;D ;D ;D ;D Sorry setanta ;D ;D ;D

[earl]

SF flip-flopped on the most important issues of all, economic issues. This was a fatal mistake. Their manifesto stated that they were going to raise the industrial tax rate, while their party leader was on the radio stating that they wouldn't. School boy mistake. Either you stick to your manifesto, or you are screwed. If your manifesto isn't much cop to begin with, you can still do further harm trying to change aspects mid-stream. SF seem to have gotten cocky and assumed that all the good publicity from NI would stand them fast. The average joe south of the border couldn't give a fig as long as people aren't blowing bits out of each other up there.
The constitutional issue is nothing more than a side issue. It'll never win an election. SF hadn't got the policies required to entice a southern voter. Working hard on the ground means nothing if the policies aren't there higher up the party ladder. SF did their ground work, but they had no realistic policies to attract voters. They'll need to change large aspects of their financial policies. Labour will be hurting. With a resurgence in FG, Labour will have to find a more secure niche on the left, considering the centre is being squeezed. They may be more of a handful for SF to deal with come next election.

[bearhunter]

Not sure about your analysis of how the electorate voted, Setanta, but I have to agree that SF scerwed up by assuming that people were more interested in the border than their back pockets. The way I see it, people said "Well, we've done all right out of the last 10 years, so we'll stick with Bertie, regardless of the fact that he's as dodgy as a greased eel." SF should have thought out their policies more and also I think they should not have had big smiley posters of Gerry around the place. It makes a lot of people uncomfortable.

[Jim]

They didn't fail as in completely flop (no, they did come to think of it), but it could have been far worse. Every small party got the same result and the only two winners were the two big parties, sounds a bit like Britain (Labour and Tory) only under a single transferable vote system instead of plurality. Considering that, SF still got a fair few votes as did the other small partis, it just wasnt enough to meet the quotas. They know what they'll need to do next tim.

Well, we've done all right out of the last 10 years, so we'll stick with Bertie, regardless of the fact that he's as dodgy as a greased eel.

You say that as if its a bad thing

Other then that tbh I'm glad FF will be in Government again.

[Republic]

setanta said:

We didn't assume they were more interested in the border. We just didn't stay steady as Sinn Féin, we became another tweedle dee.

I see your point setanta, but i dont think staying as SF will make a difference. SF is far too much to the left for most irish voters, who are a pretty conservative bunch.
someone on a forum, could be this one, made the point that such a left-wing party will always struggle to make inroads in what is arguably, europes most capitalist state.
Which i think is a fair point.

[earl]

I think the wires crossing probably lost Sf a seat, but even if they had of stuck to their manifesto, I couldn't see their vote increasing by much. There's a reason why the two largest parties in Ireland are both centre right, it's because the vast majority of Irelands population is centre right. SF will never be more than a fringe party, akin to the Alliance party in NI. Ireland is probably the most capitalist country in the EU. Our policies are closer to the U.S. than anyone else. Personally, I'm not sure that's a good thing. I'd far rather capitalism with a social conscious a lá Scandinavia. But in this environment, SF don't have a chance. Their policies reaks of 70's socialism. Outdated. If I were to vote for a more socialist party, the Greens would get my vote. In fact, I really hope Bertie mixes it up a bit and goes into coalition with them. I believe that Trevor could be an asset in relation to north/south relations, being a fluent Irish speaking bible tumping Protestant that he is. I hear big Ian loves to talk religion, so such a chap as Táiniste could help keep relations on a straight and narrow.

[Republic]

setanta said:

Our manifesto wasn't good enough and didn't stick to our core princibles.
Simple as that.

but do you really think its made that much of a difference?
do you think such socialist politics can succeed here?

btw i take your point about populism, at least you intend to stick to your principles. i just cant see SFs principles being popular.