2009 EU Elections

[An Fear Dubh]

It might be interesting to look at some past results and attempt to predict the outcome and then look at the result and see how we did. Election on June 4th &5th in Ireland full results across EU, known June 8th.

So here is some results from 2004 EU election. The turn out in the North was 51.7%, there are more people registered to vote this time so expect this to increase.
Jim Allister (then DUP) 175,761 1st preference votes, 32%
Bairbre de Brun (SF) 144,541 1st preference votes 26.3%
Jim Nicholson (UUP) 91,164 1st preferences votes 16.6%, elected on 3rd count.

Candidates in the North Constituency, 3 seats;
Jim Allister (TUV)
Diane Dodds (DUP)
Bairbre de Brun (SF)
Jim Nicholson (UC&U) = Ulster Conservatives & Unionists
Alban Maginness (SDLP)
Ian Parsley (Alliance)
Steven Agnew (Green Party)

In the north the battle between Dodds v Allister will be watched closely. While Jim Allister is not expected to win, a vote in the region of 50,000 will send a strong message to the DUP. He got 19.6% in the Dromore by-election.

In Dublin the constituency has been reduced from 4 to 3 seats. Which offers a new challenge to Sinn Fein and Mary Lou McDonald.
Gay Mitchell (FG) is expected to hold his EU seat.
Proinsias de Rossa (Labour) is expected to hold his EU seat.
Eoin Ryan (FF) he is expected to be in battle with Mary Lou for the last seat.
Some other candidates;
Joe Higgins (SP)
Patricia McKenna (Independent) was a Green Party member
Deirdre de Burca (Green Party)
The outcome of the 3rd seat will be dependent on transfers.

In the East Constituency 3 seats;
Avil Doyle (FG) retires and this offers new opportunities to others to make in roads.
Mairead McGuinness (FG)
Liam Aylward (FF)
John Paul Phelan (FG)
Raymond O'Malley (Libertas) was chairman of the farmers (IFA).
Tomas Sharkey (SF)
Kathleen Funchion (SF)
Nessa Childers (Labour)

In North West Constituency, 3 seats;
FF veteran Sean O Neachtain retires,
Declan Ganley (Libertas) the leader of his party.
I am bit unsure of the FF candidates,
Paschal Mooney (FF)
Pat O'Rourke (FF)
Gerrard O'Connor (FF)
Marian Harkin (Independent)
Jim Higgins (FG)
Joe O'Reilly (FG)
Susan O'Keeffe (Labour)
Padraig Mac Lochlainn (SF)
Mac Lochlainn probably stands a better chance than Mary Lou.

In South Constituency, 3 seats;
Brian Crowley (FF)
Ned O'Keeffe (FF)
Sean Kelly (FG) former GAA president.
Colm Burke (FG)
Kathy Sinnot (Independent)
Dan Boyle (Green Party)
Alan Kelly (Labour)
Toireasa Ferris (SF) daughter of Martin Ferris.

[An Fear Dubh]

Wasp - Do you think Jim Allister will get in the region of 50,000 votes?
Setanta - What about Padraig Mac Lochlainn how do you rate his chances? Does the running of Declan leader of Libertas have any cause for concern to his chances?

[Wasp]

I do AFD, but not only as a protest vote but also because he is the most experienced in Europe.

In the European Parliament Jim Allister has given 223 speeches, asked 46 oral questions and made a total of 269 contributions.

UUP MEP Jim Nicholson has made 86 speeches, asked 3 oral questions for a total of 89 contributions.

The IRA supporting MEP ;D ;D has made 71 speeches, asked zero oral questions for a total of 71 contributions.

[Jim]

I wont be voting for anyone tbh if I'm in Belfast at the time.

I dont think making speeches and asking questions in the European Parliament is a benchmark for experience, the actual work they do outside of that is of more importance.

[Jim]

No one to vote for who come close to my views anymore.

Plys Bairbre de brun taught me french in school and she took my fanta yoyo and never gave it back to me.

[Wasp]

I got it from the TUV website.

[Jim]

May 10, 2009 21:17:05 GMT @setanta said:

If I get it back for you will you vote for her??

Aye!

Nick Griffith (bnp) is standing in north england, could always vote for that cunt! let me throw up first.

[earl]

Setanta,

Have you seen the various placards up around the place? You'll notice that most parties have their party name fairly prominent, except for FF. Their party name is almost a size of a disclaimer at the bottom of their placards!

[An Fear Dubh]

Well Setanta what is the story in Dublin?

[An Fear Dubh]

What happened in Wicklow? I heard a story about fighting between John Snell and Jane Dignam's brother?

[An Fear Dubh]

Sinn Fein's Bairbre de Brun topped the poll with much the same percentage as she polled in the last election. But because of the 3 way unionist fight it makes a good headline.

'Sinn Fein top the poll, making them the largest party in the North'.

1st preference votes;
Bairbre de Brun (SF) 126,184
Diane Dodds (DUP) 88,346
Jim Nicholson (UC&U) 82,893
Jim Allister (TUV) 66,197
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 78,489
Ian Parsley (Alliance) 26,699
Steven Agnew (Green Party) 15,764

You would probably expect Dodds and Nicholson to eventually get elected. In the southern state Sinn Fein has had mixed fortunes. Joe Higgins taking the 3rd seat in Dublin was a bit of a kick for them. As they saw the threat from FF and did not really expect Joe to poll as well.

One must wonder given the strength of anti-government vote (FF - Greens). How come SF did not fair better? And when is a good time to make gains? It seems easy to lose ground but harder to win it back.

[An Fear Dubh]

I also see some commentators saying that this was a protest vote against government in the North the same as Fianna Fail/Greens and Labour suffered, as the DUP is a partner in government here. If that is so, how come SF did not feel the same effect with a bigger vote for the SDLP?
Looks like poor analysis of the reasons why people voted for the TUV.

[Jim]

I'd say because there are three unionist parties and only two nationalist parties. Who knows, I dont have the voting figures.

The DUP have said that their fall in vote isnt just protesting about their SF partnership. I'd believe that to some extent. Its more than just them being in Government, but what theyve been doing in Government and the wider disgust at MPs doing what I call the double.

Apparently a lot of Green and Alliance votes got transferred to TUV, I'd say that is unionists feeling very disillusioned at the DUP and traditional unionism. I voted Green Party first preference personally, I knew from the start de Brun would have no problem getting elected.

Unionism is lost.

[An Fear Dubh]

That won't work, the rumour mongers are mostly stickies, we need to play the same game, infiltrate and slowly educate, while discrediting the spoofers.

[An Fear Dubh]

You can not lay the blame with media bias only. At the moment there is enough sleaze stories going around to sink everyones campaign. It was obvious that SF in the Dublin Euro only saw the threat from FF. While Joe ran up on the rails and won.

With the anti-government (FF + Greens) backlash there should have been greater gains. SF don't get enough transfers and are not seen as a stable alternative. Every grouping goes to great lengths to distance themselves publicly from SF. All this needs to change, because at the moment SF see-saw and when they lose ground it takes more than two goes to win it back.